Short Report: Stanford Wrestling HC Hire

The Bear Case for Why the Koll System Will Face Challenges at Stanford

For the record, I have nothing against Rob Koll. It would be insane to not acknowledge how impressive his track record is and applaud him for what he was able to create at Cornell over the last ~30 years. Koll is certainly a big name and makes a big "splash" as a head coaching hire at Stanford, perpetuating the unique relevance the program has experienced throughout this year as part of the "Keep Stanford Wrestling" campaign. That being said, I am highly skeptical of the strategic rationale behind this decision and do not think this hire will substantially improve the Stanford wrestling program from where it is today. Before reading below, please note that all of the items outlined are from my own perspective and experience as a college coach at Penn and Northwestern. Also note that some of this information may be dated given I stopped coaching back in 2018. There are inevitably gaps in my understanding of certain items (which I do my best to call out), but regardless would like to share my viewpoint on the situation.

To start, let's look at what has enabled Rob Koll to have success at Cornell. From my perspective, it comes down to a few key factors (outside of day-to-day coaching in practice, which I cannot speak to):

• Admissions: having strong relationships with the Cornell admissions department and (based on my understanding) having "preferred sports status"

• Recruiting: Koll is notorious for his recruiting prowess and ability to value sell recruits, families, and coaches on the merits of what the entire Cornell wrestling ecosystem can provide. Being able to leverage the "Ivy League" affiliation to lure recruits looking for an exceptional athletic/academic mixshift is a powerful tool that very few institutions can offer. Additionally, Cornell is not constrained by the typical 9.9 scholarships like most D1 wrestling programs and instead offers unlimited, universal need-based financial aid to its student athletes (as do all other Ivy League schools / sports)

• Fundraising: hand-in-hand with the "selling" that differentiates Koll on the recruiting front is his ability to galvanize alumni/donor support to keep the program well resourced. He is top bucket in this category, which is clearly incredibly valuable

To keep focused on these key buckets, I want to go ahead and compare what a few of these have looked like in the "Cornell" situation vs. what they will look like in the "Stanford" situation

Admissions

Life at Cornell:

o    It is important to start with admissions because Cornell is in a very unique situation relative to its Ivy League peers in wrestling world (based on my understanding)

o    The way admissions for Ivy League sports works is that each sport is granted a number of "admission slots" for each incoming class that they're able to fill with recruits

o    This does not offer carte blanche to coaches to go out and find the best recruits that have "good enough" grades to get into these incredibly elite institutions. How it works is that each class must collectively meet an average academic performance threshold in order to have a balanced class of qualified candidates

• As an example, an Ivy League team may have, say, 6 admission slots each year and their incoming class may be required to meet an average "academic index" of ~200 (which is a figure that accounts for a candidate's standardized test score, GPA, strength of schedule, etc.).

• As a coach, you have the option then to find 6 recruits that are all at the 200 threshold, 3 recruits at 170 and 3 others at 230, or some other combination that gets you to a 200 average

o    Of the 6 Ivy League institutions with wrestling, my understanding is that most of them have a very similar average "academic index" threshold required for incoming classes, with very small variance if any. As you can imagine, it is a delicate balancing act because of this competitive dynamic. The universe of recruits that fit this profile is relatively confined and each of the other institutions are trying to hit their respective averages as they round out their classes

o    Except for Cornell. Cornell wrestling has something called "preferred sports status" --- this is a special designation for certain sports at Ivy League universities that are of high importance to the school (which typically are football and basketball, like they are at Power 5 schools). This designation is important because it means the average "academic index" required for class admission is substantially lower than its Ivy League peers, who do not have this designation at their own schools. Because of this, the universe of potential recruits at Cornell is much broader and they do not run into as much competitive overlap with the other Ivy League schools given they have more flexibility

o    Additionally (and this is something I am fuzzier on), beyond the lower "academic index" threshold, I believe Cornell has also been able to leverage admissions through "transfers" (e.g. folks who essentially "redshirt" by attending a local community college for a year, training under the RTC designation with the Cornell team, getting strong marks their first year of school, and then being admitted to Cornell via transfer a year later).  This is another admissions lever that has enabled Cornell to get a broader universe of kids through the door, which at these prestigious academic instructions is the major roadblock for building a strong athletic program

Life at Stanford:

o    I spell out all of the above because while on the surface level Cornell and Stanford seem like comparable institutions with similar challenges in the admissions process, they are monumentally different

o    The universe of recruits for Stanford that hit appropriate admissions' criteria is much more in-line with the rest of Cornell's Ivy League counterparts' academic thresholds, if not higher

o    Stanford wrestling does not have "preferred sport status" enabling lower-scoring candidates to break through in the same way. I also think the likelihood of building a robust "transfer pipeline" as another mechanism to circumvent traditional admissions is highly unlikely

o    Admissions at Stanford are the most rigorous and challenging in the country and potentially the world, full-stop. The same level of flexibility Koll enjoyed at Cornell will never exist at Stanford, substantially constraining his pool of potential recruits that possess a very rare combination of world-class wrestling talent and distinguished classroom performance

Recruiting

Life at Cornell:

o    Now that we have level-set on the admissions dynamic at Cornell, it will be easier to highlight the differences in recruiting there vs. at Stanford

o    Beyond the difference in admission requirements from an academic-readiness perspective, the two other main elements to recruiting are (i) scholarship/financial aid and (ii) selling the merits of the opportunity

o    As mentioned in my intro, Cornell and other Ivy League schools are not constrained by the 9.9 scholarships that most other D1 wrestling programs operate under. They instead provide "need-based financial aid" to their student athletes

o    Need-based financial aid essentially means the university financial aid office takes each recruit's application as part of the admissions process, reviews it in its entirety, and then determines an appropriate annual aid package based on the recruit and his family's annual income, assets, etc. There are two important callouts related to this process:

• This is entirely out of the hands of the coaching staff --- coaches have no say in the financial aid packages the university puts together for recruits. This is a massive difference when compared to what happens at PSU, Iowa, etc where coaches determine how much each kid is "worth" in the form of a scholarship

• The pool of financial aid money is virtually "uncapped" --- each team is not limited on how much financial aid their team qualifies for, which is a very different dynamic from a 9.9 scholarship program. This means that Ivy League athletic programs have essentially an unlimited amount of dollars that can be allocated towards their recruiting classes, which IMO is a massive benefit and competitive differentiator

o    Wrestling is inherently a lower-socioeconomic, blue-collar sport. Because of this reality, many wrestling recruits out there inevitably qualify for very favorable financial aid packages at these Ivy League institutions

o    At a scholarship program where only the "top recruits" get "full-rides" given the scarcity value of a scholarship, the socioeconomic realities of wrestling recruits often times enable Ivy League schools to give near-full-ride financial aid support to a recruit who may not be in that "blue-chip" category and qualify for a full-ride athletic scholarship elsewhere

o    The final point on need-based financial aid in Ivy League schools is that these institutions cannot competitively differentiate on how much money they offer recruits in their packages. For example, if Princeton's aid office determines you get $30,000 in support but Brown's office says you actually qualify for $45,000, there is a requirement for Princeton to then match Brown's offer at $45,000. The Ivy League rationale here is that they do not want kids choosing their school based on financial decisions but rather want the merits of the university to be the deciding factor for which school they ultimately elect to attend

o    Circling back to Cornell specifically, this financial aid dollar dynamic has enabled Koll to bring in classes of recruits with uncapped financial aid support, bridging the "how can I pay for this" gap that most recruits and families grapple with during this process. Scholarship allocation, deeming a certain kid is "worth more" than another, and other items more omnipresent in the rest of D1 wrestling just do not exist at Cornell

o    To my point on selling --- this inter-Ivy financial aid "matching dynamic" then eliminates a massive element that exists in virtually every other recruiting battle. Because dollars are taking out of the equation, the inter-Ivy recruiting process then becomes about pure selling, which Koll is notorious for being incredibly good at. When you don't have to bring money into the conversation, the selling becomes much more value-based and configurable to each recruit's needs

o    If you're selling to a recruit that is in the "Cornell" pool but doesn't meet other Ivy "academic index thresholds", the allure of attending an Ivy League school becomes a massive differentiator relative to other schools that recruit may be considering. If you're selling into a pool where the kids are also eligible for admission to other Ivy League schools, the appeal of the "world class wrestling experience" where you compete with Big 10/Big 12 powers paired with an Ivy League education is an equally powerful selling point

o    This duality of approach given the uniqueness of Cornell's positioning has served them incredibly well over the past 30 years and enabled them to compete with the best programs in the country for top talent on the recruiting front

Life at Stanford

o    In Stanford world, recruiting is very, very different. From a financing perspective, Stanford is a hybrid scholarship/financial aid institution. On the scholarship side, my understanding is that they are partially-funded and do not have 9.9 scholarships to offer across their team

o    Additionally, I believe their financial aid process is still relatively strong given the size of their endowment, but not as robust as the Ivy League and does not have the same "matching" mandate given it is a Pac-12 institution

o    So at Stanford, (i) financing is partially in the coaches' control given there are scholarships at play and (ii) the financial aid is different and not a convenient unlimited well of resources that each kid has entitlement to

o    This makes scholarship/financial aid a much more constant element of Koll's recruiting philosophy and strategy than it ever had to be. That's not to say he can't figure out the right balance, but it's just a new element of the equation that he has to solve for when going to market

o    We've already touched on it but worth calling out again --- his universe of eligible recruits is now substantially smaller than it was at Cornell. These kids have very high academic requirements they need to hit, and the ones that can do that plus wrestle at a high level are tagged not only by Stanford, but by Harvard, Princeton, Penn, Northwestern, etc.

o    From a selling perspective, my opinion is that Stanford is not a hard place to sell. Koll's strength in this category will still certainly be valuable, but it's not as if inability to sell was the "gating item" keeping Stanford from being a national title contender.

o    Kids will always want to go to Stanford, just like kids will always want to go to Harvard. Harvard doesn't beat Princeton, Penn, Stanford, and Northwestern in recruiting battles because Jay Weiss is a superior salesman --- it's because Harvard is Harvard. Stanford will always attract the right kids and Koll does not all of a sudden help them win on the recruiting front

o    At Stanford, it is less about selling and more about solving the admissions/financing equation. Again, this is not to say Koll cannot do this, but it just has not been the crux of what he's been focused on at Cornell

Fundraising

o    Honestly, I do not see a big difference here and I think Koll will be able to coalesce the Stanford alumni base around an idealistic future for their program and get buy-in. Fundraising is pretty plug-and-play wherever you go, and I think this is something he will continue to do well based on what I have observed from the outside.

Last year, Stanford had an NCAA champion, another All-American, and a round of 12 finisher. As a team, they finished 17th overall at the NCAA tournament. Honestly, that's pretty good given all of the challenges you face at a place like that and certainly something they'll improve upon given the youth they currently have on the roster with Griffith, Abas, Woods, etc. That being said, I think there are institutional realities and challenges that make it difficult for Stanford to be a consistent top-10, top-5 type of program across college wrestling.

I think the previous coaching staff did a tremendous job scaling this program and preparing it for its "moment" last year, which was truly special to see as a fan of the sport. For all intents and purposes, what Stanford wrestling was on March 20, 2021 is pretty much as close to what I believe it can achieve as a wrestling program. Even in the case where I’m wrong and Koll is able to “build something special” in Palo Alto, in reality, it will take 5 years for his first class of recruits to do a full cycle through Stanford Wrestling 2.0, which is the same timeline as this initial contract. Building a culture and setting up a powerhouse takes a lot longer than 5 years, so if you believe this will actually work out (e.g., give you substantially better results than what Borrelli/Blake/Tirapelle provided), then you have to believe Koll will be there beyond this initial 5-year contract term.

I’m obviously over the moon that Stanford wrestling was saved and that this premiere landing spot for high school wrestlers still exists. However, I believe the margin for programmatic improvement is incredibly slim and I'm skeptical Koll will all of a sudden transform them into a consistent trophy contender. I'm very open to being proved wrong, but I am approaching this hire with much more skepticism than enthusiasm based on my understanding of the situation.